You don't need a conspiracy to see that the markets are falling. I'm playing the 50-day ema downtrend on SPY. I sold a number of calls last week and more today. I'm still bullish on the Q's. In fact, I think the real money is made here long Q's short SPY on a 75/25 split on full margin. Close that in January and everyone will think you're a genius.

I reversed quickly on all the positions I took from the previous post. Though we're clearly at what look like reversals, the trends continue. I'm short on the loonie now, long €.

€ uptrend is broken.

I'm shorting EURUSD here at 1.3598. This quick runups, regardless of reason, rarely last more than 8 days. The consolidation short of the former high of 1.3666 shows there's some doubt about the breakthrough. It's likely, and healthy to pull back here.

NZDUSD looks over as well, but I'm not shorting, just closing. Triple tops aren't reversals.

I like EURJPY short and USDCAD long here. The loonie is moving in response to oil, should be a good reversal.

The waiting is the hardest part

It's really hard to do nothing. Markets are trending as predicted: spy's running, kiwi's running, copper too. What's there to do?

Nothing.

If you read the markets well that's the overridding message: do nothing. Take your positions, hold them. But, that's hard. The charts show volatility, indecision, opportunity.

Try looking at the chart and saying, "Good!" Then walk away.

So you're saying, "But I don't have any positions." Okay. Live with this fact: you only enter when there's an entry. Entries are reversals. We're trending now. You need to wait. One day the chart will say, "Enter here." Calmly, and without any of the hollywood-induced passion. Just enter, then manage.

Cocoa's pulling back here. There could be an entry in as many days as it takes for you to enable commodities trading on your account.

xbox elite on cnbc:



I agree that after the Dow tests 12,000 MSFT is a great portfolio play. It's lost enormous ground since releasing Vista and is a value play now, but it's not time to buy.

Betting on a strong US$ is tough. There's no good reason for the dollar to strengthen outside of Bernanke's comments. Still, that's where the price action is. I'm short EURUSD long USDJPY. I closed my kiwi trade. Not looking to short there.

The downtrend in the equity markets is over. It's not on the SPY chart, but even that will be clear in a few days. It's on the copper chart and EURUSD.

This is not healthy, but we're not doctors, we're investors. I wish the markets pulled back to some EMAs that had resonance with the 'goldilocks' uptrend. They didn't. What this means is simply we're in for another up-leg. When we crash from this one, likely in October, it will be hard: good money making opps on both sides.

First of all you have to get into copper. Even the federal reserve watches copper more closely than any of their own money supply statistics.

Charts later when I have more time.