Summary on Microsoft Vista

Now is the time for the euro to run. Resistance becomes support. You can set your stop loss parameters to 1.2895 like money in the bank. That's the most you can lose. If you can risk 5%, trade as much as you can with a stop at 1.2895. With the € @ 1.2947 there's 52 pips to lose, times 100 = 5200. If you've got $100K in your account you can trade 10 lots or 1,000,000 on the trade. Nice. If you've got more trade more. The numbers go up. This is it!!!

Dollar strength here is surprising. I'm not sure how to account for it, but I'm certain that being long € is not a good way. I The downtrend on the hourly chart looks to be moving off of the 50-period ema. I'll set a short entry somewhere south of 1.2945:

The weak US$ theme isn't as easy to play as it used to be. Is the US$ strong against the € or is the € just weak here? This chart suggests it's the euro that's weak. The ¥ has been getting the most attention here but most of the talk has been against the US$. Looking at €/¥ there's a clear double top. Further, the hourly (always the driver in these near sighted markets) has bounced for a first time off the top of a down channel:

I like silver short here. Echoing gold on reversals silver is losing ground faster. Gold is showing a double-top, which is clearly the reversal de jour, whereas silver is showing a down channel. The hourly charts are benign, which is a problem. I'm taking a small short on silver here.

Copper's got a double bottom, but I missed the entry there.

The most likely misunderstood market is bonds. With unanimous upward revisions on Q1 expectations rates are skyrocketing building in inflation expectations. This course will reverse on clarity. Nailing this reversal is the most promising money maker on my radar.

It's no news that the £ is ripping up the € these days, but the € is still the driver:



I'm long on the € here keeping my ear to the rail. This is a potentially explosive trade.

Gold shot through resistance today. I'll go long on a retracement:



Airlines and telecom are continuing their streak. UAL is at a buyable retracement:



I closed Panera today. So much for buying on fundamentals alone.

Hilton Hotels ( HLT ) went macd green today in a strong continuing uptrend. I'm only entering double green macd positions now, until oil reverses. That's an exemplary chart:



Stochastic is too far out on overbought to take a long position here. Wait for a retracement.


There's a case to go long on the daily and short on the hourly charts US$/¥:



I like the weak US$ play better. I'm taking a small short here.

Gold a short here? Perhaps. I'm not in yet but keeping an eye on the chart.

Long time no post. It's tough. I just don't have the time I'd like to write. However, I'm trading off of a new theme and in case anyone cares I'm posting it here.

Goldilocks economy until oil bottoms. That's it. I'm looking for high return on internal capital companies at value. The retracement of tech on good earnings news is a buying opp.

I still like natural gas. That's a 5-year theme, perhaps more. Commodities will bottom and rally this quarter. I'm playing small bets to keep my ear to the rail.

Open positions: all long:

AAPL
ECA
EMN
GOOG
IIG
PNRA

I'm long on the euro as well.