Friday, January 26, 2007

Dollar strength here is surprising. I'm not sure how to account for it, but I'm certain that being long € is not a good way. I The downtrend on the hourly chart looks to be moving off of the 50-period ema. I'll set a short entry somewhere south of 1.2945:



The weak US$ theme isn't as easy to play as it used to be. Is the US$ strong against the € or is the € just weak here? This chart suggests it's the euro that's weak. The ¥ has been getting the most attention here but most of the talk has been against the US$. Looking at €/¥ there's a clear double top. Further, the hourly (always the driver in these near sighted markets) has bounced for a first time off the top of a down channel:



I like silver short here. Echoing gold on reversals silver is losing ground faster. Gold is showing a double-top, which is clearly the reversal de jour, whereas silver is showing a down channel. The hourly charts are benign, which is a problem. I'm taking a small short on silver here.



Copper's got a double bottom, but I missed the entry there.


The most likely misunderstood market is bonds. With unanimous upward revisions on Q1 expectations rates are skyrocketing building in inflation expectations. This course will reverse on clarity. Nailing this reversal is the most promising money maker on my radar.


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