xbox elite on cnbc:



I agree that after the Dow tests 12,000 MSFT is a great portfolio play. It's lost enormous ground since releasing Vista and is a value play now, but it's not time to buy.

Betting on a strong US$ is tough. There's no good reason for the dollar to strengthen outside of Bernanke's comments. Still, that's where the price action is. I'm short EURUSD long USDJPY. I closed my kiwi trade. Not looking to short there.

The downtrend in the equity markets is over. It's not on the SPY chart, but even that will be clear in a few days. It's on the copper chart and EURUSD.

This is not healthy, but we're not doctors, we're investors. I wish the markets pulled back to some EMAs that had resonance with the 'goldilocks' uptrend. They didn't. What this means is simply we're in for another up-leg. When we crash from this one, likely in October, it will be hard: good money making opps on both sides.

First of all you have to get into copper. Even the federal reserve watches copper more closely than any of their own money supply statistics.

Charts later when I have more time.

It's all about reversals and trends.

At reversals the ema's are hard to read: they're covered by the price bars. However, after a reversal they're clear: they're support and resistance, usually at the same periods as before the reversal.

There's a U-shaped patter to equity trading volume on any given day. That's one of the reasons I draw trendlines at candlestick body tops and bottoms. I don't use the extremes of the day. The open and close have the most significance as they have the most trading volume. They reflect sentiment.

There was a sharp drop today on the close that's moving in sync with the 50-day ema. I am reading this bearish and have taken my first short on SPY. I remain short on MDY.



I think I nailed the kiwi reversal, but an end-of-day surge in US$ has me a bit concerned:




I'll be buying the first green bars.

I'm back in the € long as well:

I closed USDJPY and AUDUSD this morning. Not much to say here except I got all a that! A retracement here is natural. Will the carry trades continue to unravel? If so they will do so on an EMA. I'm not playing every bend in this road. When € and US$ / JPY peak today we'll have something to go on. I'm waiting for that information.

Volatility is good:

Carry trades are continuing to roll out. The next stop on eurjpy is 150. I'm short there and continuing on USDJPY. If you're following me at home please keep a sharp eye on your charts. Set stops to lock in profits. This could turn around quickly. No one likes being on the opposite side of that interest delta. Short AUDUSD as well.

To my own shock and horror I closed GOOG today. My friend Shawn calls me his Apple/Google guy. I guess I'm just his Apple guy now. I don't like GOOG's behavior here after the China panic, failing to rise above any of the trailing emas.

Markets are starting to show some trending characteristics on the hourly charts. I'm looking at the 13-hour emas as trial entry points. It's always fun to spot shorts. Quick money.

Out of the € today, doubling down on my ¥ short.