It's all about reversals and trends.

At reversals the ema's are hard to read: they're covered by the price bars. However, after a reversal they're clear: they're support and resistance, usually at the same periods as before the reversal.

There's a U-shaped patter to equity trading volume on any given day. That's one of the reasons I draw trendlines at candlestick body tops and bottoms. I don't use the extremes of the day. The open and close have the most significance as they have the most trading volume. They reflect sentiment.

There was a sharp drop today on the close that's moving in sync with the 50-day ema. I am reading this bearish and have taken my first short on SPY. I remain short on MDY.



I think I nailed the kiwi reversal, but an end-of-day surge in US$ has me a bit concerned:




I'll be buying the first green bars.

I'm back in the € long as well: