The downtrend in the equity markets is over. It's not on the SPY chart, but even that will be clear in a few days. It's on the copper chart and EURUSD.

This is not healthy, but we're not doctors, we're investors. I wish the markets pulled back to some EMAs that had resonance with the 'goldilocks' uptrend. They didn't. What this means is simply we're in for another up-leg. When we crash from this one, likely in October, it will be hard: good money making opps on both sides.

First of all you have to get into copper. Even the federal reserve watches copper more closely than any of their own money supply statistics.

Charts later when I have more time.

Finally, a correction.

Anything could have sparked this. Markets were far over-extended. I've been predicting a China-based correction since February 6th. I don't want to catch a falling knife but there are some early opportunities here. I really like UltraShort Dow30 ProShares - DXD for playing this correction. Simple: buy here and sell when the panic's over.

The real question is will carry trades continue to unfold? I don't think so. Today was a panic, but not an over-reaction if that makes any sense. As Kensey once said, "It takes a long time for a tree to grow, and a day to cut it down." That's the nature of correcting markets.

I'll be looking for continuation trends. I'm very happy with my MDY puts. I'm short on TTEC and ICE as you know. Long on the &euro here and short USDJPY. I'm expecting more ¥ strength before this is over.

Going long on GBPUSD and USDJPY here:



This is a cross play — weak on $US vs. ¥, strong $US vs. £.

As expected London and New York are both seeking a stronger ¥ this morning. What's interesting here is how much stronger the US$ is moving. There are a lot of gaps here in the chart. There's a lot of opportunity here if you can catch the right direction.

I'm playing the long side of both the US$ and € this morning. That may change by noon. It's really all about that hard ceiling @ $122 and 159 €.

The ¥ is soaring, likely due to the fact that traders are recognizing that in fact the ¥ is a topic of G7 discussion. This hiccup is curious:



I'm reading it as a strong desire to short the €, some trepidation overcome by conviction. Only Japan is open right now. It will be interesting to see what London and New York do with this. Usually they disregard what happened in Tokyo.

Now is the time for the euro to run. Resistance becomes support. You can set your stop loss parameters to 1.2895 like money in the bank. That's the most you can lose. If you can risk 5%, trade as much as you can with a stop at 1.2895. With the € @ 1.2947 there's 52 pips to lose, times 100 = 5200. If you've got $100K in your account you can trade 10 lots or 1,000,000 on the trade. Nice. If you've got more trade more. The numbers go up. This is it!!!

Dollar strength here is surprising. I'm not sure how to account for it, but I'm certain that being long € is not a good way. I The downtrend on the hourly chart looks to be moving off of the 50-period ema. I'll set a short entry somewhere south of 1.2945:

The weak US$ theme isn't as easy to play as it used to be. Is the US$ strong against the € or is the € just weak here? This chart suggests it's the euro that's weak. The ¥ has been getting the most attention here but most of the talk has been against the US$. Looking at €/¥ there's a clear double top. Further, the hourly (always the driver in these near sighted markets) has bounced for a first time off the top of a down channel:

I like silver short here. Echoing gold on reversals silver is losing ground faster. Gold is showing a double-top, which is clearly the reversal de jour, whereas silver is showing a down channel. The hourly charts are benign, which is a problem. I'm taking a small short on silver here.

Copper's got a double bottom, but I missed the entry there.

The most likely misunderstood market is bonds. With unanimous upward revisions on Q1 expectations rates are skyrocketing building in inflation expectations. This course will reverse on clarity. Nailing this reversal is the most promising money maker on my radar.

It's no news that the £ is ripping up the € these days, but the € is still the driver:



I'm long on the € here keeping my ear to the rail. This is a potentially explosive trade.

Gold shot through resistance today. I'll go long on a retracement:



Airlines and telecom are continuing their streak. UAL is at a buyable retracement:



I closed Panera today. So much for buying on fundamentals alone.

Hilton Hotels ( HLT ) went macd green today in a strong continuing uptrend. I'm only entering double green macd positions now, until oil reverses. That's an exemplary chart:



Stochastic is too far out on overbought to take a long position here. Wait for a retracement.


There's a case to go long on the daily and short on the hourly charts US$/¥:



I like the weak US$ play better. I'm taking a small short here.