Dollar's up on Fed optimism. Personal income and spending, weekly jobs and PCE inflation data arrived yesterday: all reinforcing the Fed's decisions to stay on the sideline. More from The Daily Pfennig: "The US savings rate has fallen to a 74 year low. The last time the savings rate was this low, was in 1933 during the Great Depression." All of the long-term conditions for the dollars continued decline remain in place.

My ¥ short is not immediately gratifying. I'm stopping at 121.4. Not an automated stop. Automated stops have been killing me. I'm watching this daily. I need a timer on my stops, which I assume tradestation offers. I just haven't had the time to figure it out.

From FT: "Low interest rates have been a crucial factor in the recent weakness of the Japanese currency, encouraging investors to put on carry trades in which long positions in high-yielding currencies are funded by selling low-yielding currencies such as the yen."

On the continued run on the S&P 500: A trend, once in place, will continue until something stops it. That something must be exogenous. The trend in equities is the healthiest I've seen in years, especially in the absence of any kind of market innovation to justify it run. There are changes in the world economy of course driving this growth: the advent of a consumer class int he BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Everyone's waiting for a pullback, including me. However, a trend will continue until it ends, and if you don't trust that, you're not making money.

Natural gas continues to be my continuing focus. The long-term chart suggests a number of things but I'm focused on the 6 - 8.5 range and building explosion suggested by stochastic. Open wedges are not predictors, rather they need interpretation. Often they fizzle into a trading range. With Russia seeking to create an NG OPEC and the supply issues of the near past (it's hard to ignore that peak at 15) this is as close at it gets to a safe bet in futures (if you're not Jim Rogers).