Tuesday, February 20, 2007

How to read the news.

It is essential to read the news, just as you read charts, that is, "How will this information affect investors' perception of future supply and demand?" News is a bit harder to read than charts because journalists aren't traders. They key on on buzzwords rather than trends and reversals. Use a discerning eye to pick out only information that concerns changes in supply and demand.

Here's an annotated article from todays FT:



An example of a carry trade: click.

This is a classic tale of supply and demand. The Bank of Japan controls the supply of the ¥. Carry trades are determining the demand. This is a long-term trend in effect and sensitive to imbalances. With the US paying nearly 6% in interest and Japan paying only 0.25% it's unlikely that there will be any long-term effect. However, a change from 0.25 to 0.50 which is being contemplated is a 100% increase, so it's likely to have an effect in short-term trading.

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